Vietnam’s Competitive Position in Global Trade

Hung emphasized that Vietnam cannot afford to be isolated from major economies. Instead, it must actively engage in global trade competition. With deepening international ties, particularly with the U.S., Vietnam is in a strong position to attract FDI and expand its role in global supply chains.

Regarding Vietnam’s economic growth targets, he noted that while double-digit GDP growth is ambitious, it is achievable with structural reforms and accelerated development. With only 15 years left in its "golden population" period, Vietnam must act quickly to capitalize on its demographic advantage.

Key Growth Drivers in 2025

Hung identified public investment, particularly in infrastructure, as a major driver of economic growth in 2025. Sectors such as construction and building materials are expected to perform well.

Additionally, domestic consumption and real estate could play a vital role. If Vietnam’s middle class continues to grow, real estate development could stimulate broader economic activity. Despite some concerns among foreign investors about large property developers, mid-range real estate firms remain attractive investment options.

The Vietnamese government is also taking proactive steps to simplify licensing procedures and implement new land-related laws, which could help boost the real estate market and increase market supply.

Vietnam’s Role in Trump’s Trade Strategy

At the same event, Frank Kelly, founder of Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, highlighted Vietnam’s growing trade relationship with the U.S.. In 2024, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. reached nearly $120 billion, while imports from the U.S. totaled just $15 billion, resulting in a significant trade surplus.

However, he noted that the Trump administration has not yet clarified its specific policies toward Vietnam. One key concern is the re-routing of Chinese exports through Vietnam to bypass U.S. tariffs—a trend Trump’s administration wants to prevent.

Opportunities in the U.S. Market

At a separate event on January 8, Bob Bauer, President of the U.S. Association of Food Industries, emphasized that Trump’s tougher stance on Chinese imports could create more opportunities for Vietnam.

• Vietnam has a competitive edge in exporting food products to the U.S., as its goods face fewer regulatory barriers than Chinese exports.
• However, strict verification of material origins is crucial, as many U.S. businesses suspect that Vietnam imports raw materials from other countries before re-exporting them to the U.S.

Navigating a Changing Trade Landscape

As U.S. policies evolve, Vietnam must:

• Strengthen FDI appeal by improving business conditions and investment incentives.
• Ensure compliance with U.S. trade regulations, particularly regarding product origin verification.
• Leverage supply chain shifts to attract more multinational corporations looking for alternatives to China.

Despite uncertainties, Vietnam remains well-positioned to turn challenges into opportunities, reinforcing its role as a key trade and investment hub in Asia.